The Joker Report

AUoptimo's AU Preview (Games 4-8)

Disclaimer - Pay attention fuckwads.  I will put this atop every guest writer's article in the hopes that you will truly understand that the words being said in the following article are NOT my words, even though some may end up being true. So if you have a problem with anything being said or any grammatical mistakes or spelling errors, direct it toward him/her, not me, or I will bring the Joker wrath.  And you and I both know you don't want that.  And if you do, as Hank the Dwarf so eloquently quipped..."Your mutha."

The 2009 season has started pretty smooth for AU as they have ridden home field advantage and an upstart offense to a 4-0 record.  The second 1/3 of the season presents a much greater challenge with 4 SEC matchups and 3 of 4 games on the road (as opposed to 3 of 4 at home).  Players on both sides of the ball are mostly healthy but with little experience with road success in the SEC.  A few victories under the belt will help AU in the upcoming weeks but the road will take its toll.  AU could come out with 2 or 3 wins but they will need a lot of luck.  My early season preview predicted AU would struggle on the road this season and the odds for an AU victory in games 4-8 reflect those sentiments.   Everyone has their opinion about the actual strength of the 2009 AU squad but one thing is for sure, they will play hard and actually be fun to watch.  This is a welcome and stark contrast from recent years. 

 

Game 5: Sat, Oct 3.  Auburn at Tennessee.  UT 55/45

I grit while typing about the powder orange and my stomach gets weak at the thought of a stadium filled with over 100,000 people who are proud to wear that awful part of the color spectrum.  Anyway, this matchup pits two teams that had fairly high hopes going into last year before each went 5-7 and subsequently fired their long time coach.  Today, both teams have brand new coaching staffs at a crossroads in the 2009 season.  UT returns the QBs (Crompton included) that led them to a 107^th ranked passing offense last year.  But a new offensive system, including a potential superstar in Bryce Brown (starter as a true frosh), will eventually improve their stagnant offense.  Last year UT’s defense finished 3^rd in the nation in total defense, led by arguably the best defensive player in the country (Eric Berry).  This year they only return 5 starters but still have 3-4 NFL bound starters.  AU and UT have similar overall talent levels but both teams are very thin at several key positions.   While most AU fans foresee a victory in this game, I see AU struggling on the road.  Possible AU loss (55/45).

Interesting Notes:  AU has won 4 straight in the series and 9 of the last 12 games have been decided by 10 points or less.  AU was still ranked #15 going into last year’s game 5 versus UT.  The difference in last year’s game was a gift touchdown scored by AU after UT fumbled a handoff at their goal line late in the first half. 

 

Game 6: Sat, Oct 10.  Auburn at Arkansas.  Reds 60/40

Bobby Petrino’s second season as Arkansas’s coach has much higher expectations that his first but a brutal schedule awaits the former AU offensive coordinator (road games vs. Alabama, Florida, Ole Miss, LSU, and neutral site vs. Texas A&M).  Their offense will be led by monster Michigan transfer Ryan Mallet (6’7 250) and an NFL caliber RB in Michael Smith.  Also, don’t forget about their standout TE (D.J. Williams) and quality WRs that give them weapons all over the field.  Regardless, Arkansas’s overall success will depend on offensive line play and filling holes in 2008’s porous defense.  The defense returns 9 starters but still has understandably low expectations after giving up 31.2 points per game last year.  I see Arkansas as the most underrated team in the SEC.  They will pull off several surprises providing they have any improvement from last year’s defensive performance.  This is a very tough road matchup for AU.  Arkansas’s advantage in skill positions and coaching overmatch AU on the road.  This game will be closer than most think but a probable AU loss (60/40).

Interesting Notes:   Arkansas won last year’s meeting on the Plains 25-22 in the first game after AU fired OC Tony Franklin (AU was still ranked #20 going in to the game).  AU leads the series 10-7-1 and the road team has won the last four meetings.  Booby Petrino was the OC at AU in 2002.  AU’s current OC Gus Malzahn was OC at Arkansas for the 2006 season.

 

Game 7:  Sat, Oct 17.  Kentucky at Auburn.  AU 70/30.

Rich Brooks has made UK a respectable program (3 straight bowl victories) but they will remain a lower-tier SEC team again this year.  Last year UK struggled on offense but was strong defensively.  This year the offense should improve but only 3 starters return on defense.  Mike Hartline returns as starting QB but he has true frosh Ryan Mossakowski (a former AU commit) waiting in the wings.  UK appears very weak at the line of scrimmage on both sides and that spells trouble in a conference that is won in the tranches.  I believe UK will finish last in the SEC east this year and might struggle to win a single conference game.  AU will continue to be strong at home and take advantage of superior talent to cruise to victory.  Likely AU victory 70/30.

Interesting Notes:  The teams have not met since 2005 and AU leads the series 24-5-1.  40 years ago in 1969, Pat Sullivan set a then Auburn record with four touchdown passes in a 44-3 win at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

 

 

Game 8:  Sat, Oct 24.  Auburn at LSU.  LSU 60/40.

LSU has almost as many question marks as AU but their talent level is one big tier above the AU.  Jordan Jefferson is raw, talented, and mistake prone at this point in his career.   LSU only returned 6 starters on defense but top recruiting classes several years running has made restocking no problem. The defensive coaching staff and scheme is in the midst of growing pains but getting stronger by the week.   LSU has depth, a bye week before the game, and home field making a victory likely.  But this game has been one of the SEC’s best the last five years giving AU a decent chance to pull it off if LSU’s offense makes mistakes and AU’s does not.  Probable AU loss 60/40.

Interesting Notes:  12 of the last 19 matchups have been decided by a touchdown or less, including the last 5 in a row.  Last year’s game was a top 10 matchup with #6 LSU visiting #10 AU and College Gameday on campus.  The home team had won 8 in a row before 2008’s 25-21 LSU victory.  No AU fan will ever forget the last two AU games in Baton Rouge.  2007 gives us memories of Les Miles making a horrible decision to throw to the end zone on the last play of the game and getting rewarded for it.  2005 was even more heartbreaking as 5 missed FGs led to an AU loss after dominating the entire game.  Hopefully, this years game provides some better memories…

 

---AUoptimo

On the Edge - by AUoptimo

Disclaimer - Pay attention fuckwads.  I will put this atop every guest writer's article in the hopes that you will truly understand that the words being said in the following article are NOT my words, even though some may end up being true. So if you have a problem with anything being said or any grammatical mistakes or spelling errors, direct it toward him/her, not me, or I will bring the Joker wrath.  And you and I both know you don't want that.  And if you do, as Hank the Dwarf so eloquently quipped..."Your mutha."

On the Edge...

 

… of a cliff.  But will Auburn fall?  Everyone has their opinion about the direction of Auburn football these days but most will agree that the hiring of Gene Chizik was questionable, if not ludicrous.  Hmmm, lets hire a proven defensive coordinator and failed Big 12 head coach to come and compete with the likes of Urban Meyer, Nick Saban, Mark Richt, Les Miles, Bobby Petrino, Houston Nutt, Lane Kiffin, etc… great idea!!!  Auburn’s football program is now at a crucial point and the performance of the Gene Chizik led Tigers in 2009 will likely determine the direction of the program for several years to come. 

 

Rebuilding you say?  Let’s not forget that Auburn was preseason top 10 last year and returns 16 starters for the 2009 season.  The huge difference is an entirely new coaching staff trying to rebound from a 5-7 season.  Few people will argue that Auburn took a step down the head-coaching quality ladder when Tubberville was replaced by Chizik.  In my opinion, the weakness of the Tubberville regime was not the head coach himself but the “good ol’ boy” coaching staff that surrounded him.  All great head coaches are surrounded by quality coaches in every position.  Tubberville was not willing to replace several friends that were not SEC level coaches/recruiters and therefore the program’s peak was 1 SEC championship in 10 years.  Now, on to the Chizik regime.  He hasn’t surrounded himself with friends but with proven coaches and recruiters.  Chizik’s staff is much stronger on paper than the head coach himself.  Whether or not they can carry the team remains to be seen.  Only one thing is for certain going into any season, the fact that game management by the head coach will decide several games.  Can Chizik hang with the big boyz???  I have my doubts but not as much as most non-Auburn folk. 

 

I am confident that the first three games will make or break Auburn for some time to come.  La Tech is no cupcake but they should not hang with the AU at home.  If they do hang… or pull off an upset…  Auburn’s football program will start a freefall off the edge.  And the only savior will be a successful conference season. 

 

Please comment after the game… and look for my postgame thoughts coming soon.

 

Blake’s post-JokerReport’s AU assessment:

 

Chirs Todd = questionable.  Auburn is in trouble if he has to carry the team.

Andrew McCain = starting tackle 5^th year senior.  Only o-lineman with no experience.

Ben Tate = solid RB.  Not spectacular but does the dirty work.

Onterio McCalebb = name you all will know by the end of the year.

Auburn WRs = all no-names until someone produces on gameday.

Eltoro Freeman = best player on the defensive side.

Darren Bates = true freshman starting at strong safety.  Spells danger this year.

Antonio Coleman = overrated.  But will open up the other side for Michael Goggans.

Walter McFadden = shut down corner.  2^nd round draft pick net year.

Blake's (AUoptimo) AU Preview

See what I do for my guest writers?  I give 'em bangin' hot women to lure the crowd in...then it's up to Blake to bore them to sleep.  Ha!  Actually, he gives you a quick rundown of the first few games of Auburn's season, so pay attention Tiger faithful.  Oh, and feel free to call him out on anything, cuz I sure as hell will.

For the record, I don't know who this girl is.  But her file name in my computer is "daaaaamn", if that helps you any.

Disclaimer - Pay attention fuckwads.  I will put this atop every guest writer's article in the hopes that you will truly understand that the words being said in the following article are NOT my words, even though some may end up being true. So if you have a problem with anything being said or any grammatical mistakes or spelling errors, direct it toward him/her, not me, or I will bring the Joker wrath.  And you and I both know you don't want that.  And if you do, as Hank the Dwarf so eloquently quipped..."Your mutha."

I begin with first of three game-by-game previews presented in manageable 4-game posts relevant to all SEC fans.  AU begins the 2009 season with a four game home stand and enough questions to compose a novel.  The first four games are important in determining the direction for every team in the NCAA but AU’s opening games in 2009 are much more critical than in most years.  I believe AU’s performances in these games will make or break this season and potentially the near future of AU football.  Wins or losses will be less important than building confidence and continuity between the players, coaching staff while rebuilding fan support.  The four games consist of two should wins and two could wins.  AU might fall of a cliff or they might surprise everyone.  Y’all can have your opinion so here is (the beginning of) mine..

 

2009 Auburn Game-by-Game Preview:

Date, Opponent.  Game Notes w/odds of AU victory.

 

Game 1: Sat. Sep 5, Louisiana Tech at Auburn.  AU 80/20

Chizik era begins against semi-dangerous opponent.  La Tech's program is improving under Derek Dooley and leans on a strong defense, which is rare for a WAC opponent.  La Tech's strongest aspect is their DL with at least two NFL-caliber players but their offense has many weaknesses beginning at the QB position.  AU's new offense will have an interesting test to set the bar for the season.  A good showing could lead to bigger things but early failure could be disastrous.  Either way, an AU victory is likely 80/20.

Interesting Notes:  La Tech beat Miss. State 22-14 in last years season opener and went on to win their first bowl game in 31 years.  AU is 10-0-1 all-time versus La Tech.

 

 Game 2: Sat, Sep 12, Mississippi State at Auburn.  AU 60/40

Chizik’s SEC opener versus another first-time SEC head coach Dan Mullen.  Mullen is an Urban Meyer protégé and has installed a new spread similar to the offense at UF.  Two new coaches both with new offenses and strong defenses should produce a competitive game.  Just a single touchdown will make for a more exciting game than last year’s 3-2 debacle.   This is a big test for AU’s offensive line and defensive front because State’s DL and RBs are keys to their success.  A more talented offense and home field advantage give AU the edge.  Probable AU victory (60/40).

Interesting Notes:  6^th consecutive year AU vs. MSU has opened the SEC season.  AU has won 20 of the 27 games in the series but MSU won in Auburn (19-14) in 2007.  AU was ranked #9 (AP/USA) going into last year’s game versus MSU and held them to 116 offensive yards in one of the ugliest football games in modern history.

 

 Game 3:  Sat, Sep 19, (23) West Virginia at Auburn.  WVU 55/45

Last year AU built a 17-3 lead in Morgantown before Pat White woke up and Noel Devine exploded for 207 rushing yards leading WVU to victory.  This year, WVU not longer has the services of Pat White and 4 members of its o-line but has speedy offensive weapons (see Devine and Rodgers) and a veteran defense that returns 7 starters.  WVU has earned preseason expectations due to recent success but could drop off this season, especially with a loss at AU.  AU’s success in this game will likely depend on the momentum from the first two games.  A hot and muggy September day on the Plains would help AU’s cause but the home crowd will help no matter the weather.  This game could go either way but the Mountaineers have the slight advantage due to a proven offensive scheme and overall preseason confidence.  Likely AU loss (45/55).

Interesting Notes:  Last year’s Thursday night contest was the first ever meeting between the teams and AU’s first non-conference road game since 2003 (Ga Tech).  WVU scored 31 unanswered points after AU had a 17-3 lead and AU’s offense managed just 33 yards in the second half.

   

 Game 4:  Sat, Sep 26   Ball State at Auburn.  AU 95/5

Ball State had a memorable 2008 and was ranked as high as #12 after having an undefeated regular season.  Fast forward to 2009… they have a new coach, freshman QB and question marks all over the field.  A quality RB in Lewis will not be enough to carry the Cards to victory on the Plains.  AU wins no matter how much momentum they have from the first three contests.  Definite AU victory (95/5).

Interesting Notes:  AU leads series 2-0 after a 63-3 victor in 2005.  Ball State RB MiQuale Lewis set school records for rushing yards (1736) and TDs (22) in 2008.  New head coach Stan Parrish led Kansas State to a woeful 2-30-1 record during three years at the helm from 1986-88 (he and Chizik must be buddies).

 

Stay tuned for more…             

            Sat, Oct 3         at Tennessee    

            Sat, Oct 10       at Arkansas      

            Sat, Oct 17       Kentucky         

            Sat, Oct 24       at LSU

            Sat, Oct 31       (14) Mississippi            

            Sat, Nov 7        Furman            

            Sat, Nov 14       at (13) Georgia

            Fri, Nov 27        (6) Alabama